Introduction: A Manufactured Confrontation
The Horn of Africa is on the edge of a catastrophic confrontation. Ethiopia and Eritrea are once again facing off, this time over the strategic Eritrean port of Assab (see map below).
On the surface, this is a bilateral dispute. In reality, it is a proxy war being manufactured by external actors — chiefly the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel — using Ethiopia’s domestic crisis as leverage.
Abyssinia as African Colonial Empire
While Ethiopia is celebrated as an African state that resisted European colonization, it was itself a colonial empire dominated by the Amhara elite. Oromos, Afars, and Somalis were forcibly incorporated, subjected to land grabs, and cultural suppression. Even Tigrayans faced violent repression when they resisted central rule. Ethiopia’s expansionist claim to Assab must be understood as a continuation of this imperial legacy.
Ethiopia’s 2026 Elections and the Politics of War
With Ethiopia’s general elections scheduled for June 2026, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is mobilizing nationalist rhetoric to shore up his rule. His declaration in 2023 that “120 million Ethiopians cannot remain landlocked forever” reflects not just strategic need, but political survival. By promising sea access, Abiy seeks to unify a fractured country and distract from insurgencies in Oromia and Amhara.
UAE’s Maritime Empire and Red Sea Strategy
The UAE has systematically established a maritime empire across the Horn of Africa and beyond. Through DP World, it controls Berbera and Bosaso. In Yemen, it operates from Aden, Mukalla, and Socotra. In Eritrea, it leased Assab in 2015. These ports, nominally commercial, function as strategic bases. Since the Abraham Accords, they also serve Israeli objectives, turning the Red Sea into a militarized zone.
Israel’s Red Sea Strategy: The Hidden Hand
Israel regards the Red Sea as a strategic frontier. Assab offers vantage points to monitor Egypt’s Suez Canal, counter Saudi naval presence, and disrupt Iranian supply to the Houthis. By outsourcing its operations to the UAE, Israel secures deniability while embedding itself across the Horn. Eritrea’s ports are pawns in this broader strategy of militarization.
Eritrea’s Isolation and Vulnerability
Eritrea’s regime, led by Isaias Afwerki, is militarized but fragile. International sanctions, economic stagnation, and decades of authoritarianism have left it isolated. Leasing Assab to the UAE in 2015 compromised Eritrea’s sovereignty, and now with Abu Dhabi shifting toward Addis Ababa, Asmara is dangerously exposed.
Regional Fallout
A war over Assab would destabilize the Horn and beyond. Sudan, already in civil war, would collapse further. Somalia, trapped between Turkish and Emirati influence, would lose more sovereignty. Yemen’s Houthis would escalate Red Sea attacks. Global trade through Bab al-Mandab, which carries 10 percent of world commerce, would be jeopardized.
Conclusion: Resisting Proxy Wars
The looming Ethiopia–Eritrea conflict is not inevitable. It is being engineered by foreign actors — the UAE and Israel — and fueled by Abiy’s political desperation. The peoples of the Horn must resist becoming pawns in this proxy war. Sovereignty and solidarity are the only alternatives to endless cycles of foreign-driven conflict.
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Prof. Dr. Bischara Ali Egal, Executive Director and Chief Clinical Researcher, Canada Specialized Hospital (1998) Inc., Jidka Wadnaha Hwy., KPP, Hodan.
Sources
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Bahru Zewde. A History of Modern Ethiopia, 1855–1991. Oxford: James Currey, 2001.
International Crisis Group. Ethiopia and Eritrea: Preventing War over the Red Sea. Brussels: ICG, 2023.
Reuters. “Ethiopia’s Abiy Says Red Sea Access Is a Necessity, Not a Choice.” October 2023.
Middle East Eye. “Revealed: UAE Deploys Israeli Radar in Somalia under Secret Deal.” July 2024.
Roland Marchal. “Red Sea Politics: Ports and Power.” Horn of Africa Network Papers, 2022.
Associated Press. “UAE Expands Port Holdings in Yemen.” July 2021.
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